The Math behind a successful MBA Admission Campaign

Every year, as a b-scgool, you are faced with the biggest challenge of strategically choosing communication channels for your Admission purposes, trying to ensure that you get it RIGHT.

I am aware that over 98% of our b-schools get it WRONG every year. There is a reason they repeat their mistakes, sub-consciously at most times.

You measure the results that come from each marketing channel you choose rather than a multi-channel strategy and measurement. You use certain channels incorrectly, without completely understanding the characteristic consumption pattern of your Applicants in that channel. You define usage of channel by the same prejudices that are wrong and need to be corrected.

So,

How will you figure out muti-channel attribution to your Applications each year?

How will you strategize for something that you don't completely understand?

How will you change from a broken system to a correct-system as soon as possible?

How will you improve effectiveness of your Admission campaign and therefore improve application numbers and maintain that for the coming years?

How will you stop random buying and learn to methodically identify channels that work for you, and the integration of such channels?

Consider the following multichannel strategy used by a b-school

 

 

This means that the bschool is using 6 different but integrated channels for its marketing program.

If we consider that Results (Overall Results i.e.) is a function of engagement and action taken, then we can represent it as:

Result = fn(Action, Engagement)

Now, according to integrated marketing assumptions, the action and engagement can happen in two different channels at a given point in time "t".

Which means, that for a result Rt, the set of action and engagement can be (Pagalguy.com, Database Calling); wherein the action happened in PG but the engagement happened over database calling.

Similarly, at a time "t+1", the R(t+1) can be (Database calling, Pagalguy.com); wherein action happened in database calling but engagement happened in Pagalguy.com.

Since it is impossible to attribute specific inputs to specific channels for results, the best can we can predict is the probability of engagement of a particular platform at a certain time for a result "R".

Mathematically, this would mean-

P(PG) = Probability of student engaging with Pagalguy.com

P(C) = Probability of student engaging over a call

R = Result from the overall marketing system

The Probability of a student engaging with a particular platform is directly proportional for the amount of time he spends on that platform, or the "exposure" to that platform. Therefore, lets assume for our calculation's sake that a student spends 40% of his time on Pagalguy.com and the 20% of the time he is exposed to Calls from b-schools.

Then P(PG) = 0.4, and P(C) = 0.2

We want to identify what will be the probability of engagement on Pagalguy, when there is a Result from the marketing system. This can be denoted as - P(PG | R)

To find this probability, we will use the Bayes theorem (since there are multiple events associated with this probability)

Therefore,

P(PG | R) = [P(PG) * P(R | PG)] / [ [P(PG) * P(R | PG)] X [P(C) * P(R | C)] ]

Now,

We will have to calculate: the probability of a result for engagement happening in PG as well as calls.

P(R | PG) = Time x Activity x (1/Total number of options at a given time)

= 4 x 5 x (1/50)  [Considering 4 hours total time, 5 pages viewed each time, and 50 B-schools as option during his visits]

= 0.2

P(R | C) = 0.1 x 10 x (1/100) [Considering 0.1 hours call time, 10 calls, and 100 bschools calling]

= 0.01

Now, 

The P(PG | R) = [0.4 x 0.2] / [ [0.4 x 0.2] + [0.2 x 0.01] ]

= 0.08/0.082

= 0.97

or 97% probability of Pagalguy engagement when Result is "R" from the marketing system.

Similarly, we can calculate and attribute different probability scores to different sets of "(Action, Engagement") to check how effective is the engagement of a particular medium and how it plays out for the marketing system.

Since, the college in this case is using 6 different channels, and given that there are two factors, the number of sets will be 6P2 (permutation), giving us about 30 such sets that will contribute to the overall results.

These sets need to be measured if one needs to figure out the Effectiveness of Every Channel used. But this is hard and near impossible due to complexity of the relationships and theimprobability to tag an action to a particular channel. All we know is that together, they form a cohesive system that provides the advantages of an "integrated" marketing system and allows us to measure the integrity of "Communication" that actually affect the efficiency of these 30 sets.

 

Start practicing the the most scientific and right strategies for your Admission campaign design, else you will keep on doing the same ad-hoc usage of communications channel and Measure them incorrectly - leading to bad results.

Fooling a B-school in India

Are b-schools really smart? We can argue this based on certain parameters - and one of them has to be the way majority of our b-schools approach planning for their Admission process.

Majority of our b-schools in India (along with the new ones too) follow a very similar and outdated approach to their admission process. The process involves - buying database, calling and mailing this database, holding special seminars, attending educational tours collecting more databases, calling and mailing these again, and continuing the process to get intent from some of these applicants to join the college's program.

Over 1500 B-schools in India practice this every year, and they haven't done anything different for the past many years. The trouble is that, two important things are happening:
- The number of calls that are ending with no results, are increasing
- Even the conversions after getting an intent, are decreasing

Every year, some people sitting at Rajasthan provide our Indian b-schools with the databases of MBA applicants of that year (collected from various "sources" that are claimed to be anonymous). Given that one can easily quantify the number of applicants who are serious about MBA, most b-schools purchase the entire data from the market anyways - to cold call, mail, sms etc.

"So what are some educational portals selling these b-schools in the name of validated/verified leads? If the total population of MBA applicants is a super-set {E}, then there is no chance of {E+1} anywhere."

Then why do b-schools buy such leads at almost 100 times the price that they have already bought from other offline sources? Why are they paying for redundant leads which are the same as they have already purchased and prospected?

It makes no sense to me to get the number of the same girl who has rejected my proposal to get married from another source. I already know the outcome.

Then why would I pay 100 times more money to that source to figure out that the same girl again gets to hear my pathetic rambling and then decide to hang-up the phone?

B-schools have not had the central-nervous-system to understand a few very important things:

1) The universe of MBA applicants is well defined and is a finite number. It is not like insurance or jobs market, wherein leads pour in everyday, and websites formed to catch those leads sell them as premium

2) Buying more leads from multiple sources will only add to duplicating the database already bought by the b-school from earlier sources

3) No matter how strong the counseling team is, there needs to be an integrated and strong marketing plan implemented to support conversions

4) Online doesn't mean BTL activity and leads

5) It is foolish (sorry, no let-off here) in buying leads that you already have as a part of your universal database. Also, MBA applicants do not fill in leads. If they are interested to APPLY to you, then they will directly call or mail your team. They are smart people - in case you have forgotten

Imagine the following situation:

You have purchased 2,00,000 leads from a source (that includes all entrance tests data of that year), and have started calling these applicants through your counseling team.

Somewhere between 3001 and 3005, you wonder what is happening to the 5th person in the database you spoke to? What did that person do or where all did the person engage with your b-school's brand after that call/mail of yours? Has he been called by more b-schools in this interval? How are you going to arrest his exit from your system?

B-schools have forgotten what it means to have excellent marketing systems. Every year, they measure which particular channel gave them certain inputs/conversions and then spend a large sum of their money on that. The next year some other channel finds favour.

This happens because, b-schools dont bother to understand that marketing success (in this case the conversions) is always attributed to how the overall system functions, integrated by the usage of different channels (BTL as well as ATL).

Stop getting fooled and making a fool of yourselves. Get smarter and improve your team's potential to see, understand and implement important communications strategies that will help in getting more applications, and better branding for your college.

Leads don't give you conversions. They are just the beginning of a larger and complex process.

What do B-schools across the world fail to communicate?

Let us consider (at the outset), that the applicant whom B-schools would want to admit in their program is a Buyer2.0 persona. That should define the way the applicant would search for information, make proper networks within the community, and look at specific communications to arrive at a conclusion (to apply for a certain program).

The trouble for b-schools can be represented in a dichotomy:
1) They don't understand the Buyer2.0 persona
2) They allocate too much "Air-time" for the kind of info that can be considered Junk

The first issue can probably be solved by the Admission teams by reading more literature and fine-tuning a pretty well integrated marketing strategy, but the core problem will lie in allocating space to the kind of content that will go out to these applicants.

According to formula based on user engagement, I find the following to be true:

User Acquisition = i x n x D x M

Wherein, "i" is the intention of the applicant, "n" is the urgent need, both being variables. The constants D and M are Demographics and Money respectively.

So for a larger user acquisition, one needs to improve the combination score of "i x n" at all times.
Let us see how we can Map the "intentions" with "needs" (of applicants) through the following strategy matrix:

Reference:
A = Low need, and low intent
B = High need, and low intent
C = Low need, and high intent
D = High need, high intent

There might be a factor of "time" (as a part of the communication process) to be considered by the b-school while allocating space for communication, but the deviation will be minimal.

Some examples of the categories for a b-school are:
A = LN+LI = Founding members; Board members; Infrastructure
B = HN+LI = Faculty profile; Accreditation; Pedagogy; Syllabus; Culture
C = LN+HI = Placements; Location;
D = HN+HI = Eligibility; Admit results; Batch profile; Alumni network

One can always look up the kind of communication space provided to the above factors in a b-school brochure. I went through some, and this is what I found (just going by the number of pages the content got in the brochure):
A = 20%
B = 40%
C = 25%
D = 15%

So for a novice, the user acquisition (for a b-school) would look something like:
UA = fn{20a,40b,25c,15d} x D x M

I believe that b-schools could do much better if they changed the way applicants (the Buyer2.0 persona) engaged with the info/content and then shared it with other like-minded people over the internet. At present the amount of content on most of the unnecessary stuff is a pile-on for all such applicants. The info worth going after is mostly 15%-40% of the overall communication. the irony is that most of the questions (~80%) that applicants have over the internet communities (for MBA) are related to a combination of C and D categories (ones that have high intent).

Now imagine a larger integrated & multi-channel marketing program of the b-schools with the right ingredients mixed in the right type of content (story, video, contests, etc) that will have the potential for better engagement and conversion of people from across the applicants population in the country. Such a program will allow for measuring the effectiveness of quality of communications rather than the channel they are using (since we know that for integrated systems, all systems will have to perform and one can't ever credit a single window to do the trick).

Defining the canvas for your b-school

Over the past 5-7 years, Indian b-schools have been in the roller-coaster ride dealing with changing profiles of applicants, whimsical regulatory bodies, micro-economic factors, dynamic growth in standard of higher education along with the rising expectations from people taking up higher-ed for getting access to excellent careers through these b-schools.

A lot has happened and all of these need to be classified for these b-schools to understand their current situation (vis-a-vis a certain standard of reference), and figure out the steps to be taken in the coming years.

Similar to other industries, b-schools too are fragmented into various sections/segments. There isn't a single point of differentiation that can be considered while grouping these b-schools. Doing such a thing will lead to incorrect modelling of the entire story and incorrect forecasting.

I have chosen to use the overall profiles of b-schools and map them on a graph with time on X-axis, and density of applications in the Y-axis. I have then chosen to use multiple factors that are common amongst most of these b-schools to provide them a particular band. These bands then can be named as B-school 1.0, 2.0, 3.0 and 4.0 respectively. The area of the band will also give an idea of the number of b-schools that are present in that particular band (as on this year). The growth of a b-school across the last decade had clearly been the path that leads it through 2.0, 3.0 and puts it currently into a 4.0 band.
The following is the visual representation of the same:

Are MBA applicants already a Buyer2.0 Generation?

For most B-schools, the biggest puzzle that remains unsolved for many years is the way to engage applicants with their institute's brand and other important factors - leading to Admits of some of the best applicants available in the current pool.

Considering Indian B-schools' plights, this problem takes a much larger shape and at most times even the surface of the issue isn't addressed by the staff of these seemingly floating entities.

There have been many ways that I have tried explaining the micro factors that need to be considered by the majority of b-schools in India, in order to top-grade their intakes, brand recognition, and overall development of the institution. I have explained to them how the applicants base in India is polarized in their decision making (70% of all MBA applicants wish to apply to not more than 15% of available b-schools in India). I have also pointed out the ways they can actually identify the position of their b-school from the "Perceptual Barrier" and then close in with some measurable steps to be considered as a top rank institution in India.

In all my cases to these b-schools, one important factor has always remained common - that of the new and dynamic persona of their MBA applicant - who is now a graduated Buyer2.0 persona.

Now what is so very important about people with such personas (Buyer2.0)?
Ans: The following diagram will provide some idea about the attributes of Buyer2.0:

The buyer (in this case the MBA applicant) has gone through a fundamental shift in behavior and consumption of communications. This is a fact that has been ignored over the last 5 years and I fear that it may still not be dissected and perused by our b-schools in the near future.

Some of the important Characteristics that this Buyer2.0 might have are:

1) He will be "high" on net savvy scores, and knows about social media tools & their usage
2) He contributes (via comments, feedback, curation, etc) across the important platform in the world-wide-web that matter to similar Personas of buyers
3) He networks with other buyers2.0 through various platforms and collectively can generate content that will influence the early and late followers of these platforms
4) He will not be waiting for Advertisements and emailers to reach him for making decisions. He will search and engage with forums and communities across the internet to figure out the buying-choices
5) He is not an impulsive shopper. He will not probably follow the Click-See-Buy process at one-go. He understands the rules of engagement by marketers and therefore will have a longer buying cycle
6) He will not think twice about providing negative feedback and then scout for support within the community for more negative inputs on the brand. He will have the power to bring down the brand-scores to NIL
7) He hates SPAM, cold calls, and would want to control conversations. They have "preferences" on the time of meetings, communications and would dislike any push communications thrown at them my marketers

The important question now is - Are the top-teams at our Indian B-schools even aware and sensitized about this very important fact??

I can safely bet (from the travails in meeting most of the b-schools in India), that they are not even bothered about the existence of such a thing, and I guess it will need probably an agency or some announcement of a new Ad-Format from Google/FB that mentioned Buyer2.0, to get to the hard-rock-brains of our b-schools owners.

This challenge is a current one and needs an excellent team to identify and then design marketing communications based on the same. All new Ad formats and other marketing logic (like Click-to-action, etc) can be referred to this phenomenon and I certainly believe that most of what I have written before this can be explained in a better way if I start with this challenge.

It can also lead to a wild rat-race, wherein by the time our b-schools get to understand this factor and catch-up, we might be looking at a Buyer3.0 Personas making the buy decisions.

How can a person be creative when he has to pay his Edu Loan?

The past few years have witnessed a combination of factors that have made it difficult for MBA passouts from some of the most sought after Universities to make any impact in their jobs in some of the best organizations (in terms of present growth trajectories) across world.

Factors, including - overall economic crisis, macro economic volatility affecting businesses with international exposure, exponential improvement in technology leading to irreversible job-losses, education-inflation, higher cost for higher-ed across the world, inflated interest rates from banks, etc - all leading to a crisis that has the foundations of taking human potential and shoving it into a blast furnace and burn for ages.

We are already seeing trends across the US on student loan defaults. Are we not privy to the reasons behind such situations and what it means for companies who are to have excellent future talent bases who have strong cognitive and creative capacities to succeed?

I know for a fact that if there is a huge financial burden on someone, they will take most of the choices based on a safe financial passage for the initial phase of their lives. Which means that the most important part of their lives when they could have done quality work and could have contributed with their creativity and cognitive prowess, are now being wasted taking up jobs that are supposed to pay for their loans; and NO, the ideal combination of getting a job that one loves and also pays the loan are not out there for everyone. Such things are getting rarer by the day.

We need such youngsters to come and take up responsibilities of quality work and large businesses from Day 1 and we need them to be creative enough to solve larger problems. At most times, we are ending up people who will conform to almost anything since that will save their jobs. That will help them to not lose the race (the rat race), a tunnel that end into Suicides.

Are we, as organizations putting things in the right perspectives for people to falsely understand that a professional degree like MBA is the only answer to things that are considered best and successful in lives of common people? Who are responsible to inflate fees of Universities in ways that has absolutely no correlation in the way salaries are growing for such people passing out of these institutions?

It's scary and not at all a sustainable model. We have pushed the envelope so far to get to the solution of manpower woes that we cannot even take things back. Imagine Universities cutting down on their fees - not going to happen anytime in the future. Such strategies set on wrong premises defined by a very old traditional thinking has been ticking like a time bomb. Its devouring good minds into submission and taking its full toll on people whose dreams and aspirations have become defined by a closed set of achievements - which is becoming distant every passing day.

Saving Indian B-schools from extinction

I have written in the past about how b-schools in India are on the verge of closing down (about 2 years back), and then I had predicted that there is a probability of a second wave of growth in the domain to allow some of the borderline players to actually top-grade and survive.

In the past 1 year, a lot of things have changed (for bad) primarily based on certain decisions made by regulatory bodies in the MBA domain that were backed by the Ministry of Human Resource Development (that oversees and kind of controls regulatory bodies like AICTE, UGC, etc).

To begin with, the AICTE introduced a common test (the CMAT) to replace most of the state run entrance test (like the Maharashtra CET, GCET, amongst others). The idea seemed to be providing a common platform and standardized testing for students who would now be seeking admissions into bschools that were under the purview of AICTE (which is almost everyone actually). The perceived objective (as mentioned by AICTE during their concerns over standard of education in MBA colleges, while representing themselves in front of the Supreme Court of India), was to provide some semblance in the selection process to allow colleges under AICTE to get access to good quality students. Therefore other tests (like the MAT) were taken out from 2012.

I have my own reservations on how CMAT will really solve the problem and I have written against the same before. I still stand by my observations that this test will produce no measurable results and good quality improvements across AICTE regulated bschools.

I am worried on the flip-side of the whole exercise - that which takes into account the number of bschools across many states (those that were til date getting students through State_CET and common counseling process) who are going to find themselves with empty classrooms even in this year (this has already happened last year).

The real problem is the perceived lack of quality in these bschools along with structural issues that do not allow such bschools to be a part of the mainstream action. This kind of mainstream action is enjoyed by the top100 bschools in any rankings and these bodies are now expanding their reach even outside India with their international campuses.

Out of the 2000 odd bschools in India, probably not more than 15% are above the perceptual barrier of applicants looking at MBA (that number amounts to about 70% of all MBA applicants in India who are looking at applying to only 15% of the bschools)

The solution is not another test, and it never was.

To my mind, the process should have some reflection of the points suggested below:
- Make a list and then a category of bschools under AICTE that have everything else (infra mostly, and are not insolvent) other than the students

- Once the bschools are categorized, include them into a 7-year plan of improving these bschools into seats of excellence

- Introduce a bill or special conditions in the existing bills of higher education investments/funding,
wherein International Universities and b-schools can only tie-up with the shortlisted bschools (from the above point) in India

- Make this compulsory and provide excellent sops to these international Universities who will associate with these existing bschools. The Univs get to access the infra and land through these existing bschools, and in return they make the Indian institute their partner in this venture. All faculty, books, collaborations, etc can be renewed under the new umbrella brand and therefore a leash of life will be given to the Indian bschool

- Allow 7 years for the new JV to flourish with Govt funding, relaxed norms, and other advantages that will allow the International University to make this concern grow and be one of most sought after destinations in India

- Regulate the admission process, but allow autonomy in terms of the curriculum etc so that such things can become the USP of most of these revamped colleges

- Go for a Round 2 with the next category of bschools in India

I am looking at saving about 1000 more bschools in India that will DIE if the right set of measures are not taken. Students just don't choose these bschools due to reasons other than ease of application. A Student would want to associate with a good brand and the Min of HRD will do good work if they allow these bschools to flourish as brands rather than solve the gateway problems.

Some critics might say that we cannot depend on foreign Universities solving our problems. To them I want to say that our problem at most times is the lack of vision and unavailability or no-access to quality courseware and talent. In a country where the high watermark of MBA education in an IIM, then we ought to do something improves the quality of talent available for our future managers.
I hope something like this can be done as soon as possible and then AICTE allows the autonomy to these institutions to become excellent examples/models for other to follow.

Else we might witness more bschools closing down in the coming years.