The Curious case of bad-spiral in B-school's existence

Ever wondered why so many b-schools who are languishing will not be able to become better anytime soon?

I keep interacting with most of them (obviously alongside the best in the domain) in order to figure out whether any of these struggling schools have any thought or understanding of the reasons as to why they are in a downward spiral and if there is a remedy for such a sorry state.

One of the major issues that these b-schools probably have never thought of - is the negative word-of-mouth publicity that is implemented by their own students, which snowballs into very strong negative perception affecting their admission numbers, placements etc each year.

Let us understand what really happens:

1. B-school starts operations and pushes the Marketing/Admission team to get applications for the MBA/PGDM program

2. Marketing/Admission team resorts to tried and tested and failed methodologies right away (these are not some of the best talents in India anyways). They buy databases, call people without permissions, visit cities for education tours and flash GD-PI selection processes, dole out "discounts" in the name of scholarships to "non-scholars", and care a damn while trying to get the seats filled

3. Since the failed methods are used, the perception of the b-school starts on a negative as some of the better students (or students aspiring for a good program) view this as another program started by some X person , thereby quality applications never show up on the radar.

4. While application numbers from the entrance tests databases don't show up, the b-school gets restless and then goes to some of the most remotest areas in India (places like the North-eastern states, Bihar, J&K, Jharkhand, East UP, etc). The "rags to riches" story through something called as MBA is doled out with additional spice. These places generally have dormant decision making kids, and more active parents. So somehow parents are convinced that their sons and daughters will do good (with "city" jobs).

5. These students are then the representation of majority in such b-schools and somehow the fees are collected and batch begins


Other than external ecological factors that will take the wind off the sail for such b-schools in due time, the following happens in the 2 years after these students get admission:

A) They are trained by the B-school in "written" and "spoken" English. Special classes dedicated to personality development are conducted (sometimes in regional languages so that these kids understand)

B) They are trained on using Internet and all technological advancements that are related to the Internet. At the end of these sessions and (armed with the Laptop) at the end two years, these kids are now empowered to use Social network, identify forums for MBA, etc.

C) When placements season arrives, these kids don't get placed through the internal process (mostly due to them being un-employable in any good starting role available to other grads from other MBA programs), and all of a sudden these kids realize that they will never have that dream life which was told to them during the "Admission Seminar" at their respective places

D) Armed with access to internet and filled with disgust, these kids then take on the cyber world, writing some of the most demeaning things about their b-school- the lies, the vacant promises, the bad faculty, no placements, etc. across social networking websites, MBA forums, chat sites, and wherever they feel they can vent their anger

Due to this, in the next admission season, the college again fails to get any response through the normal procedure (through notifications, etc) and resorts to visiting some new places for "fishing".
Since the cyber-world will be filled with amazing negative feedback about the college, people with access to broadband will definitely get to read those while they Google the college. So the only hope will rest on people who don't have broadband access and have no understanding of a career etc.

Thanks to "India Shining!" (sarcasm), there are still areas that fit the description for a good market for such b-schools. Areas that are still pretty backward, and will give anything for a career in the cities.

However, the same story plays out post the admission of this batch as well.

The b-school has now successfully invested and contributed to their very own, home-grown army of students and alumni who are proactively bad-mouthing the college across every possible medium.


What happens in the corresponding year?

The enrolments drop. All of a sudden I get to hear b-schools running a batch of 120 with about 20
enrolments. Given that their yearly budgets on admission activities/scholarships will be driven by the numbers of previous year (again a huge mistake, but will take this topic later), one doesn't need to be a rocket scientist to figure out the way things will go from here. Downward Spiral!!

Two years back, I had predicted that over 1500 b-schools will close in India. To a certain extent, they have. The others have still survived due to the way they got admissions from rural India and kept on the working capital intact. But things are changing faster. Accessibility of broadband and usage of mobile internet will be comparatively growing faster in the coming 3-5 years. With that being the premise, where will these b-schools go??

Is there a way out for them?

Definitely. But that includes things that they wont listen to or even do. They will need to close down their current programs. Re-establish everything from scratch. Get large funding, excellent faculty, use the best mediums available to communicate and interact with the best applicants in India, select only the best, get accreditation that matters, design pedagogy that will be world-class, and then see magic happen in about 5-7 years. Every b-school has gone through stages in their growth process.

Imagine a Hit Bollywood movie. Do we go for a 3rd category production house, with no stars, amazing music, and no special effects? We don't. Because we know that the quality of everything in a movie matters, and therefore people are ready to pay a premium and watch these movies in Multiplexes (and spend more on pop-corns than the movie tickets).

So if 3 hour movie experience needs to be world-class, then what about a 2yr program that will lead to someone start an excellent career??

Don't b-schools think anything on this line? Is surviving another day a part of their DNA now? How do they feel to know that their very investments are their biggest detractors and enemies?

WAKE-UP, and CHANGE.

The Case of inertia and insolvent b-schools in Management Education

There are many concerns of MBA/Management institutions in India who are classified under the 2nd or 3rd categories - going by the way they fail to measure up to any standard of perceived quality or their inability to get students for their programs.

The Biggest problem for these institutions is - PERCEPTION.

It's something like a shadow for these colleges - they can't shake it off anytime easily and it will always stick around.

So how is it even possible to help these institutions get better or top-grade themselves??

In the past 2-3 years that I have been interacting with these institutions, there are a few things that I have noticed as the bottlenecks which stopped them to do anything "good":

- Lack of vision: The top team or the owner have no vision to become better, while missing out the point that only by being better will they survive and earn more money/revenues

- Blindly copying others: This is the "herd" behavior that keeps things like "education tours" alive. Surprisingly, they are yet to figure out that by copying activities that others do, they "place" themselves into the same herd or group as others, and run into the same cliches every year

- Underestimating the ecology: Cocooned inside their own institutions and geographies, they have this self-defeating idea that everything will work out if they manage to get more local students interested in their college, and sometimes they believe that like some other bschools, they will easily get to convince people with less knowledge on MBA, jobs after MBA, life after MBA, etc.

- No measurement of what works for them and what not: There is a very famous saying by a person which goes as - "I know that I have wasted half my money this year that I invested in marketing, but the trouble is I don't know which half". This is the exact situation for these b-schools. They don't know what really worked and what didn't. They don't know if 10 visits to a city yielded anything in the short-term as well as long-term. Will the visits-to-be-made be lesser next year since they made 10 visits; or will that remain the same?

- They don't have a plan for their batch improvement: Every year, their batch needs to be profiled like every other b-school. The trouble is that the profiling never happens correctly. There are no answers to questions like - What are the contribution %ages of CAT/MAT/XAT/Other exams in your batch, and what are the ranges of each of these scores? Also, what are the new regional representations in your batch this year, and have you lost out on any specific representation from last year?(Diversity)

It is a fact that the ecology of the domain and the trends in related fields will affect the survival of the b-schools.

Some questions that these b-schools need to seriously attempt to answer are:

What happens if CAT is conducted for more than 2 months? What happens if CMAT is conducted all round the year?

What happens if the state gets more broadband access in home PCs, mobiles, and internet cafes?

What will be the impact of the usage improvement amongst local population who can now search and find better colleges and information of life after MBA?

What will happen to the kids who would join you and then don't get jobs after 2 years? Will you not train them properly enough to empower them for using Internet/social media? Will they then not have the power and the intentions to bad-mouth you everywhere they can? How will you ever stop from that happening? Will that kid be not responsible for making your college lose applications even before they applied?

What will happen to your college's local population when local population start applying to other colleges outside your city and state? How will you handle newer colleges with more money power coming to your state, or worse, multiple campuses of established names in your city/state?

What will happen if there is a steady decline of the representation from CAT/MAT and other exams in your batch along with the %ile scores and you are not aware of it? How will you feel when you will get companies to come and they will go back empty handed without recruiting?


After trying to answer the above, they should then ponder upon the following:

How will you feel if you can place all your students into excellent profiles in good companies through your placements process? Will that not be something great?

How will you like it, when your own students/alumni will contribute to getting more quality admissions and placements? Wont that be a dream come true?

How will you like it, when your college can increase fee to accommodate better faculty, infra, corporate programs, and still you get some of the best people to apply to you year on year?

Over 140,000 applicants in CAT this year will again be of people with work-exp and the availability of seats for them are less - when you compare the number of institutions that they feel are available to them to apply.

Can't they be one of those (perceived) better quality institution for these applicants?

The Math behind a successful MBA Admission Campaign

Every year, as a b-scgool, you are faced with the biggest challenge of strategically choosing communication channels for your Admission purposes, trying to ensure that you get it RIGHT.

I am aware that over 98% of our b-schools get it WRONG every year. There is a reason they repeat their mistakes, sub-consciously at most times.

You measure the results that come from each marketing channel you choose rather than a multi-channel strategy and measurement. You use certain channels incorrectly, without completely understanding the characteristic consumption pattern of your Applicants in that channel. You define usage of channel by the same prejudices that are wrong and need to be corrected.

So,

How will you figure out muti-channel attribution to your Applications each year?

How will you strategize for something that you don't completely understand?

How will you change from a broken system to a correct-system as soon as possible?

How will you improve effectiveness of your Admission campaign and therefore improve application numbers and maintain that for the coming years?

How will you stop random buying and learn to methodically identify channels that work for you, and the integration of such channels?

Consider the following multichannel strategy used by a b-school

 

 

This means that the bschool is using 6 different but integrated channels for its marketing program.

If we consider that Results (Overall Results i.e.) is a function of engagement and action taken, then we can represent it as:

Result = fn(Action, Engagement)

Now, according to integrated marketing assumptions, the action and engagement can happen in two different channels at a given point in time "t".

Which means, that for a result Rt, the set of action and engagement can be (Pagalguy.com, Database Calling); wherein the action happened in PG but the engagement happened over database calling.

Similarly, at a time "t+1", the R(t+1) can be (Database calling, Pagalguy.com); wherein action happened in database calling but engagement happened in Pagalguy.com.

Since it is impossible to attribute specific inputs to specific channels for results, the best can we can predict is the probability of engagement of a particular platform at a certain time for a result "R".

Mathematically, this would mean-

P(PG) = Probability of student engaging with Pagalguy.com

P(C) = Probability of student engaging over a call

R = Result from the overall marketing system

The Probability of a student engaging with a particular platform is directly proportional for the amount of time he spends on that platform, or the "exposure" to that platform. Therefore, lets assume for our calculation's sake that a student spends 40% of his time on Pagalguy.com and the 20% of the time he is exposed to Calls from b-schools.

Then P(PG) = 0.4, and P(C) = 0.2

We want to identify what will be the probability of engagement on Pagalguy, when there is a Result from the marketing system. This can be denoted as - P(PG | R)

To find this probability, we will use the Bayes theorem (since there are multiple events associated with this probability)

Therefore,

P(PG | R) = [P(PG) * P(R | PG)] / [ [P(PG) * P(R | PG)] X [P(C) * P(R | C)] ]

Now,

We will have to calculate: the probability of a result for engagement happening in PG as well as calls.

P(R | PG) = Time x Activity x (1/Total number of options at a given time)

= 4 x 5 x (1/50)  [Considering 4 hours total time, 5 pages viewed each time, and 50 B-schools as option during his visits]

= 0.2

P(R | C) = 0.1 x 10 x (1/100) [Considering 0.1 hours call time, 10 calls, and 100 bschools calling]

= 0.01

Now, 

The P(PG | R) = [0.4 x 0.2] / [ [0.4 x 0.2] + [0.2 x 0.01] ]

= 0.08/0.082

= 0.97

or 97% probability of Pagalguy engagement when Result is "R" from the marketing system.

Similarly, we can calculate and attribute different probability scores to different sets of "(Action, Engagement") to check how effective is the engagement of a particular medium and how it plays out for the marketing system.

Since, the college in this case is using 6 different channels, and given that there are two factors, the number of sets will be 6P2 (permutation), giving us about 30 such sets that will contribute to the overall results.

These sets need to be measured if one needs to figure out the Effectiveness of Every Channel used. But this is hard and near impossible due to complexity of the relationships and theimprobability to tag an action to a particular channel. All we know is that together, they form a cohesive system that provides the advantages of an "integrated" marketing system and allows us to measure the integrity of "Communication" that actually affect the efficiency of these 30 sets.

 

Start practicing the the most scientific and right strategies for your Admission campaign design, else you will keep on doing the same ad-hoc usage of communications channel and Measure them incorrectly - leading to bad results.

Fooling a B-school in India

Are b-schools really smart? We can argue this based on certain parameters - and one of them has to be the way majority of our b-schools approach planning for their Admission process.

Majority of our b-schools in India (along with the new ones too) follow a very similar and outdated approach to their admission process. The process involves - buying database, calling and mailing this database, holding special seminars, attending educational tours collecting more databases, calling and mailing these again, and continuing the process to get intent from some of these applicants to join the college's program.

Over 1500 B-schools in India practice this every year, and they haven't done anything different for the past many years. The trouble is that, two important things are happening:
- The number of calls that are ending with no results, are increasing
- Even the conversions after getting an intent, are decreasing

Every year, some people sitting at Rajasthan provide our Indian b-schools with the databases of MBA applicants of that year (collected from various "sources" that are claimed to be anonymous). Given that one can easily quantify the number of applicants who are serious about MBA, most b-schools purchase the entire data from the market anyways - to cold call, mail, sms etc.

"So what are some educational portals selling these b-schools in the name of validated/verified leads? If the total population of MBA applicants is a super-set {E}, then there is no chance of {E+1} anywhere."

Then why do b-schools buy such leads at almost 100 times the price that they have already bought from other offline sources? Why are they paying for redundant leads which are the same as they have already purchased and prospected?

It makes no sense to me to get the number of the same girl who has rejected my proposal to get married from another source. I already know the outcome.

Then why would I pay 100 times more money to that source to figure out that the same girl again gets to hear my pathetic rambling and then decide to hang-up the phone?

B-schools have not had the central-nervous-system to understand a few very important things:

1) The universe of MBA applicants is well defined and is a finite number. It is not like insurance or jobs market, wherein leads pour in everyday, and websites formed to catch those leads sell them as premium

2) Buying more leads from multiple sources will only add to duplicating the database already bought by the b-school from earlier sources

3) No matter how strong the counseling team is, there needs to be an integrated and strong marketing plan implemented to support conversions

4) Online doesn't mean BTL activity and leads

5) It is foolish (sorry, no let-off here) in buying leads that you already have as a part of your universal database. Also, MBA applicants do not fill in leads. If they are interested to APPLY to you, then they will directly call or mail your team. They are smart people - in case you have forgotten

Imagine the following situation:

You have purchased 2,00,000 leads from a source (that includes all entrance tests data of that year), and have started calling these applicants through your counseling team.

Somewhere between 3001 and 3005, you wonder what is happening to the 5th person in the database you spoke to? What did that person do or where all did the person engage with your b-school's brand after that call/mail of yours? Has he been called by more b-schools in this interval? How are you going to arrest his exit from your system?

B-schools have forgotten what it means to have excellent marketing systems. Every year, they measure which particular channel gave them certain inputs/conversions and then spend a large sum of their money on that. The next year some other channel finds favour.

This happens because, b-schools dont bother to understand that marketing success (in this case the conversions) is always attributed to how the overall system functions, integrated by the usage of different channels (BTL as well as ATL).

Stop getting fooled and making a fool of yourselves. Get smarter and improve your team's potential to see, understand and implement important communications strategies that will help in getting more applications, and better branding for your college.

Leads don't give you conversions. They are just the beginning of a larger and complex process.

What do B-schools across the world fail to communicate?

Let us consider (at the outset), that the applicant whom B-schools would want to admit in their program is a Buyer2.0 persona. That should define the way the applicant would search for information, make proper networks within the community, and look at specific communications to arrive at a conclusion (to apply for a certain program).

The trouble for b-schools can be represented in a dichotomy:
1) They don't understand the Buyer2.0 persona
2) They allocate too much "Air-time" for the kind of info that can be considered Junk

The first issue can probably be solved by the Admission teams by reading more literature and fine-tuning a pretty well integrated marketing strategy, but the core problem will lie in allocating space to the kind of content that will go out to these applicants.

According to formula based on user engagement, I find the following to be true:

User Acquisition = i x n x D x M

Wherein, "i" is the intention of the applicant, "n" is the urgent need, both being variables. The constants D and M are Demographics and Money respectively.

So for a larger user acquisition, one needs to improve the combination score of "i x n" at all times.
Let us see how we can Map the "intentions" with "needs" (of applicants) through the following strategy matrix:

Reference:
A = Low need, and low intent
B = High need, and low intent
C = Low need, and high intent
D = High need, high intent

There might be a factor of "time" (as a part of the communication process) to be considered by the b-school while allocating space for communication, but the deviation will be minimal.

Some examples of the categories for a b-school are:
A = LN+LI = Founding members; Board members; Infrastructure
B = HN+LI = Faculty profile; Accreditation; Pedagogy; Syllabus; Culture
C = LN+HI = Placements; Location;
D = HN+HI = Eligibility; Admit results; Batch profile; Alumni network

One can always look up the kind of communication space provided to the above factors in a b-school brochure. I went through some, and this is what I found (just going by the number of pages the content got in the brochure):
A = 20%
B = 40%
C = 25%
D = 15%

So for a novice, the user acquisition (for a b-school) would look something like:
UA = fn{20a,40b,25c,15d} x D x M

I believe that b-schools could do much better if they changed the way applicants (the Buyer2.0 persona) engaged with the info/content and then shared it with other like-minded people over the internet. At present the amount of content on most of the unnecessary stuff is a pile-on for all such applicants. The info worth going after is mostly 15%-40% of the overall communication. the irony is that most of the questions (~80%) that applicants have over the internet communities (for MBA) are related to a combination of C and D categories (ones that have high intent).

Now imagine a larger integrated & multi-channel marketing program of the b-schools with the right ingredients mixed in the right type of content (story, video, contests, etc) that will have the potential for better engagement and conversion of people from across the applicants population in the country. Such a program will allow for measuring the effectiveness of quality of communications rather than the channel they are using (since we know that for integrated systems, all systems will have to perform and one can't ever credit a single window to do the trick).

Defining the canvas for your b-school

Over the past 5-7 years, Indian b-schools have been in the roller-coaster ride dealing with changing profiles of applicants, whimsical regulatory bodies, micro-economic factors, dynamic growth in standard of higher education along with the rising expectations from people taking up higher-ed for getting access to excellent careers through these b-schools.

A lot has happened and all of these need to be classified for these b-schools to understand their current situation (vis-a-vis a certain standard of reference), and figure out the steps to be taken in the coming years.

Similar to other industries, b-schools too are fragmented into various sections/segments. There isn't a single point of differentiation that can be considered while grouping these b-schools. Doing such a thing will lead to incorrect modelling of the entire story and incorrect forecasting.

I have chosen to use the overall profiles of b-schools and map them on a graph with time on X-axis, and density of applications in the Y-axis. I have then chosen to use multiple factors that are common amongst most of these b-schools to provide them a particular band. These bands then can be named as B-school 1.0, 2.0, 3.0 and 4.0 respectively. The area of the band will also give an idea of the number of b-schools that are present in that particular band (as on this year). The growth of a b-school across the last decade had clearly been the path that leads it through 2.0, 3.0 and puts it currently into a 4.0 band.
The following is the visual representation of the same:

Are MBA applicants already a Buyer2.0 Generation?

For most B-schools, the biggest puzzle that remains unsolved for many years is the way to engage applicants with their institute's brand and other important factors - leading to Admits of some of the best applicants available in the current pool.

Considering Indian B-schools' plights, this problem takes a much larger shape and at most times even the surface of the issue isn't addressed by the staff of these seemingly floating entities.

There have been many ways that I have tried explaining the micro factors that need to be considered by the majority of b-schools in India, in order to top-grade their intakes, brand recognition, and overall development of the institution. I have explained to them how the applicants base in India is polarized in their decision making (70% of all MBA applicants wish to apply to not more than 15% of available b-schools in India). I have also pointed out the ways they can actually identify the position of their b-school from the "Perceptual Barrier" and then close in with some measurable steps to be considered as a top rank institution in India.

In all my cases to these b-schools, one important factor has always remained common - that of the new and dynamic persona of their MBA applicant - who is now a graduated Buyer2.0 persona.

Now what is so very important about people with such personas (Buyer2.0)?
Ans: The following diagram will provide some idea about the attributes of Buyer2.0:

The buyer (in this case the MBA applicant) has gone through a fundamental shift in behavior and consumption of communications. This is a fact that has been ignored over the last 5 years and I fear that it may still not be dissected and perused by our b-schools in the near future.

Some of the important Characteristics that this Buyer2.0 might have are:

1) He will be "high" on net savvy scores, and knows about social media tools & their usage
2) He contributes (via comments, feedback, curation, etc) across the important platform in the world-wide-web that matter to similar Personas of buyers
3) He networks with other buyers2.0 through various platforms and collectively can generate content that will influence the early and late followers of these platforms
4) He will not be waiting for Advertisements and emailers to reach him for making decisions. He will search and engage with forums and communities across the internet to figure out the buying-choices
5) He is not an impulsive shopper. He will not probably follow the Click-See-Buy process at one-go. He understands the rules of engagement by marketers and therefore will have a longer buying cycle
6) He will not think twice about providing negative feedback and then scout for support within the community for more negative inputs on the brand. He will have the power to bring down the brand-scores to NIL
7) He hates SPAM, cold calls, and would want to control conversations. They have "preferences" on the time of meetings, communications and would dislike any push communications thrown at them my marketers

The important question now is - Are the top-teams at our Indian B-schools even aware and sensitized about this very important fact??

I can safely bet (from the travails in meeting most of the b-schools in India), that they are not even bothered about the existence of such a thing, and I guess it will need probably an agency or some announcement of a new Ad-Format from Google/FB that mentioned Buyer2.0, to get to the hard-rock-brains of our b-schools owners.

This challenge is a current one and needs an excellent team to identify and then design marketing communications based on the same. All new Ad formats and other marketing logic (like Click-to-action, etc) can be referred to this phenomenon and I certainly believe that most of what I have written before this can be explained in a better way if I start with this challenge.

It can also lead to a wild rat-race, wherein by the time our b-schools get to understand this factor and catch-up, we might be looking at a Buyer3.0 Personas making the buy decisions.